Changes in tourist mobility after COVID-19 outbreaks.

We comparatively examined tourist mobility changes in the entire country and explicitly covered two distinct waves of COVID-19 outbreaks, based on mobile phone data from 277.15 million tourists from 2019 to 2021 in China. The results show that domestic tourism in Beijing was even higher after the pandemic than prior to it. In addition, we found that female and elderly groups had a slower recovery after the first wave, whereas this was the opposite one year later, after the second wave. Additionally, wealthier, larger cities were notably hit the hardest. Overall, our findings provide a better understanding of tourism management in public health crises and policy-making during post-pandemic recovery and for future outbreaks.

Modeling the resumption of work and production of enterprises during COVID-19: An SIR-based quantitative framework.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has evolved beyond being a public health crisis as it has exerted worldwide severe economic impacts, triggering cascading failures in the global industrial network. Although certain powerful enterprises can remain its normal operation during this global shock, what's more likely to happen for the majority, especially those small- and medium-sized firms, is that they are experiencing temporary suspension out of epidemic control requirement, or even permanent closure due to chronic business losses. For those enterprises that sustain the pandemic and only suspend for a relatively short period, they could resume work and production when epidemic control and prevention conditions are satisfied and production and operation are adjusted correspondingly. In this paper, we develop a novel quantitative framework which is based on the classic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model (i.e., the SIR model), containing a set of differential equations to capture such enterprises' reactions in response to COVID-19 over time. We fit our model from the resumption of work and production (RWP) data on industrial enterprises above the designated size (IEDS). By modeling the dynamics of enterprises' reactions, it is feasible to investigate the ratio of enterprises' state of operation at given time. Since enterprises are major economic entities and take responsibility for most output, this study could potentially help policy makers better understand the economic impact caused by the pandemic and could be heuristic for future prevention and resilience-building strategies against suchlike outbreaks of public health crises.

A topology-based evaluation of resilience on urban road networks against epidemic spread: Implications for COVID-19 responses

Road closure is an effective measure to reduce mobility and prevent the spread of an epidemic in severe public health crises. For instance, during the peak waves of the global COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented road closure policies, such as the traffic-calming strategy in the UK. However, it is still not clear how such road closures, if used as a response to different modes of epidemic spreading, affect the resilient performance of large-scale road networks in terms of their efficiency and overall accessibility. In this paper, we propose a simulation-based approach to theoretically investigate two types of spreading mechanisms and evaluate the effectiveness of both static and dynamic response scenarios, including the sporadic epidemic spreading based on network topologies and trajectory-based spreading caused by superspreaders in megacities. The results showed that (1) the road network demonstrates comparatively worse resilient behavior under the trajectory-based spreading mode;(2) the road density and centrality order, as well as the network's regional geographical characteristics, can substantially alter the level of impacts and introduce heterogeneity into the recovery processes;and (3) the resilience lost under static recovery and dynamic recovery scenarios is 8.6 and 6.9%, respectively, which demonstrates the necessity of a dynamic response and the importance of making a systematic and strategic recovery plan. Policy and managerial implications are also discussed. This paper provides new insights for better managing the resilience of urban road networks against public health crises in the post-COVID era.